Digital Subscription Growth Strategy
Increased digital subscription ARR by 40% and return visits by 215k YoY for a major newspaper publisher
Company
Major newspaper publisher
Duration
18 months
Notes
- IP belongs to the company, so I cannot show screenshots
- Numbers are rounded to protect confidential information
Overview
This case study explores how I led the digital transformation of subscription growth for a major metropolitan newspaper during a critical period of industry disruption. Through data-driven analysis and strategic prioritization using WSJF (Weighted Shortest Job First), I identified and executed five key initiatives that significantly increased digital subscription revenue and reader engagement.
Problems
The newspaper was facing significant challenges in digital subscription growth and reader engagement, performing well below industry benchmarks across multiple key metrics.
Key Performance Issues
Subscriber Growth
vs. 28% the year prior
Monthly Churn Rate
Subscribers canceling monthly
Below Industry Benchmarks
Known Users Rate
vs. 5% Google News Initiative benchmark
Paywall Hit Rate
vs. 5-7% Google News Initiative benchmark
Critical Business Impact
- Dramatic decline in subscriber growth from 28% to 5% year-over-year
- Significantly underperforming industry benchmarks for user engagement
- High churn rate indicating poor subscriber retention
- Low paywall effectiveness limiting revenue potential
Task
I analyzed 5 potential Epics and prioritized them using WSJF (Weighted Shortest Job First) methodology to maximize business value and impact on subscription growth.
WSJF Prioritization Analysis
| Epic | WSJF Score | Cost of Delay | Business Value | Time Criticality | Opportunity Enablement | Job Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower paywall from 15 to 7 articles | 18 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
| Reduce churn due to non-payment | 2.2 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Optimize Path to Purchase UX | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Lower paywall from 7 to 5 articles | 2.3 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Engage customers with resonant content | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
WSJF Analysis Notes
- Used Fibonacci numbers for to rank epics
- We split up lowering the paywall in two phases to mitigate the risk of customer shock and losing ad revenue
Prioritized Epic Initiatives
Lower paywall from 15 to 7 articles in a month
Highest WSJF score. Obvious low-hanging fruit.
Reduce churn due to non-payment
This was the top reason for customer churn. This did not require development work, so we could work on this concurrently with the other features on this list.
Optimize Path to Purchase UX
Streamline the subscription path to purchase. Ensure that the bottom of the funnel was optimized before lowering the paywall further than 7 articles.
Lower paywall from 7 to 5 articles a month
This was our ultimate goal for the paywall limit.
Engage customers with content that resonates most with subscribers and leads
Content engagement strategy. Couldn't realize the value of this epic until the we implemented the others first.
Solutions & Results
Each epic solved one or more of our initial problems. They delivered incremental results that contributed to the overall success of our digital subscription growth initiative.
Lower paywall limit (15 to 7 articles)
Solution
- Lowered monthly free article limit from 15 to 7
- First step toward our ultimate goal of limiting users to 5 free articles per month
- Problems Addressed:
- Too few users hitting our paywall
- Low subscriber growth
- Low rate of known users
Results
- 16% increase in new digital subscribers in the first 3 months vs. the year prior
- No significant impact on overall traffic or advertising revenue
Reduce Churn Due to Non-Payment
Solution
- Address involuntary churn from failed payments
- Deep analysis of transaction patterns
- Adjusted business rules to extend grace period and more payment attempts before going into collections
- Problems Addressed:
- High Churn
Results
- 50% reduction in churn due to non-payment
- Saved the company $250k in the first six months; due to saved revenue, efficiency gains, and cost savings
Optimize Path to Purchase UX
Solution
- Reduced the number of steps in the path to purchase
- Reduced the number of form fields from 20 to 12
- Optimized checkout flow for mobile
- A/B testing with old path to purchase
- Problems Addressed:
- Low subscriber growth
Results
- Conversion rate improved by 7%
- Confidence that we had the best path to purchase experience
- We expected more improvements, but we knew that we were ready to drive more customers toward the paywall
Further lower paywall limit (from 7 to 5 articles)
Solution
- Further reduced free articles to 5 per month
- Used enhanced path to purchase UX to mitigate expected lowered conversion rate
- Implemented personalized subscription offers
- Problems Addressed:
- Too few users hitting our paywall
- Low subscriber growth
- Low rate of known users
Results
- 10% increase in paywall hit rate
- Only a small hit to conversion rate (2.5% from 3%)
- Relatively high conversion rate suggests that we could lower the limit even more
Engage customers with content that resonates the most with subscribers and leads
Solution
- Deep analysis into content that drives the most sessions from subscribers and those most likely to subscribe
- Worked with editorial team to expand coverage in 3 different high ranking topics over a 3-month period
- Implemented browser push notifications to further drive engagement
- Worked with editorial team to optimize social media posting strategy
- Problems Addressed:
- High churn
- Too few users hitting our paywall
- Low subscriber growth
- Low rate of known users
Results
- 215k increase in return visits vs. prior year during the 3-month trial
- 40k return visits from browser push notifications
- 1,200 increase in new digital subscriptions vs. prior year
Overall Impact
The combined impact of all five epics delivered exceptional results and established a sustainable growth trajectory for digital subscriptions.
Key Performance Improvements
Churn Reduction
From 3% to 2% monthly churn in 12 months
Conversion Rate
In paywall hit rate in 12 months
Subscription Revenue
From $1.5M to $2.1M ARR within 18 months
Return Visits
Year-over-year increase in return visits
Key Learnings
Stacking Small Wins Now = Big Wins Later
You don't have to sacrifice big wins in order to find quick success. If you think strategically, you can stack the small wins together to make a huge impact and drive sustainable growth.
High Impact Can Come from Unglamorous Features
The most significant improvements came from seemingly mundane features, such as changing the business rules for the paywall or payment declines. These "behind-the-scenes" laid a solid foundation, which allowed us to focus on more glamorous customer-facing features later.
Cross-Functional Collaboration is Key
Aligning everyone toward a common goal of sustainable subscription growth was essential for the success of these initiatives. Everyone put their egos aside for the greater good, and as a result, we all won in the end.
The Importance of Data
I spent much more time analyzing data in Excel spreadsheets and SQL databases than I did writing user stories, prioritizing features, or creating presentations for executives. However, it was this analysis that allowed me to find the right patterns to make the improvements to our subscription business model and demonstrate that our methods were working.